UPV is responsible of for this GT.
Using the data collected in GT1, we will develop a hydro-agricultural-environmental water resources modelling process in SUDOE territorywill be developed for the SUDOE territory, taking. In this modelling process we will take into account: hydrological processes, different water uses of water, agricultural systems and climatic and anthropogenic pressures into account.
The mModels will simulate: 1) the current water resources situation regarding water resources in the SUDOE territory, which will be represented by a mapping of the whole area and will incorporate information about the amount of stored water, evapotranspiration levels and water stored in reservoirs; 2) water allocation among between different users according with to the current water rights and prioritiesmanagement; 3) water quality, environmental and ecosystem services indicators.
We will use four connected water models at on the SUDOE scale. This connection link among between the models will allow provide information about the to know water management of available water resources, water quality and environmental aspects. Simulations of future scenarios in the context of climate change will de developed. RThe results from the models will be provide the basise for the socioeconomic assessment (GT2), and for including the results will be included in in the web platform (GT4).
3.1. Modelling water resources at across the SUDOE scaleterritory
This task will be coordinated by IST.
The SWAT (swat.tamu.edu/) and MOHID-Land (www.mohid.com/) models will be implemented in order to simulate the components of the water balance, and sediment and nitrate loads from anthropogenic diffuse pollution sources in the SUDOE-AGUAMOD territory. The models will consider GT1 data, including soil maps, soil analytical databases, soil pedotransfer functions, land use maps, and weather data. The modelling approach will be calibrated/validated by comparing the outputs of the different models, and by comparing model simulations versus measured data in different watersheds. The calibrated/validated models will then be used for to analyseing the effect of GT2 socioal-economic scenarios on the water resources of the SUDOE territory.
3.2. Modelling water management and impacts over on water resources.
This task will be coordinated by UPV.
Two approaches will be taken to mModelling impacts of water management will be considered in two approaches: 1) Ssimplified capacities of the MOHID and SWAT hydro-agri-climatological models will be used for to includeing reservoirs and other management elements; 2) detailed management of the simulation capacities of the SIMGES module AQUATOOL (Andreu et al., 1996),, will give the use considering applying the rules of each system, such as management rules, priority water rights, water use, restrictions concerning shallow water uses and conjuctive joint use of surface and ground water, etc.
The rResults from this model will be the riverflowsreal flow rates, incorporating management policies as well as water volumes storage in reservoirs and groundwater and water supplied to the different users. The results of the two approaches will be compared with the aim of determining the relevance of each model based on the characteristics of the watershed system or modelling. It is expected that the first approach will provide It will be held that first approach will give good results for low water stress basins, while the second approach is will be more appropriated for high levels of water basin stress.
3.3. Modelling water quality and ecosystem services
This activity is coordinated by the CNRS.
The models developed in phase 3.1 (MOHID and SWAT) will also simulate the flows of sediments and nitrates. In addition, considering the flow results of flows obtained in phase 3.2, To use the AQUATOOL module Gescal (Paredes-Arquiola et al., 2010) to will be used to simulate the evolution of contaminants in rivers and reservoirs. From these elements it will be possible to characterisze the Ppurification of water by ecosystem services. Ecosystem services of linked to the provision of water for economic purposes will be valued evaluated with the results of activity 3.2. The other ecosystem services will be evaluated using the AQUATOOL CAUDECO system (Paredes-Arquiola et al., 2013). We will determine tThe degree of conformity with the environmental flows shall be determined established in the hydrological plans and indicators of water, environmental and Eecological services.
3.4. Determination of water pressure and environmental status indices
This activity is coordinated by the CSIC.
The “water resource pressure indices” will integrate incorporate in a simple and clear way the various aspects of the human pressure on the water resources simply and clearly. These indices will be calculated from the results derived from the modelling in Activities 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3. The index will include: the reliability of supply (e.g. the probability / return period of not reaching 100% of the supply, by uses, , sectors and nodes of in the water distribution system), the vulnerability and resilience of the operating system, the quality of the resource and the environmental quality.
As a part of the development of theise pressures indices, an assessment of the indices already defined by national regulations will be carried outundertaken (e.g.x. Instruction of Hydrological Planning in Spain,; Hydrographic Region Management Plans in Portugal and SDAGES in France), and a set of pressure indicators for relevant water resources for the entire SUDOE Tterritory will be selected in collaboration with partners and other interested stakeholders, at on national and regional scales (e.g. wWater Aabstraction Iindex). As well, oOthers that may be relevant to specific hydrographic demarcations (e.g. the probability of seawater intrusions) will also be considered.